Risk Management...
Its what's for dinner & desert!
Good morning!
It’s been a while since my last post. Certainly not intentional, just got busy with work, family and the holidays. Merry belated Christmas! With that, it is now time to dive into the written continuation of Risk... Its What’s for Dinner. However, this continuation will bring the topic of Risk full-circle in regards to providing information that will assist you with establishing your own risk tolerance and incorporating risk management as a tool into your avalanche-safety decision-making.
What I would like to start out with in this post is to direct your attention to a recorded presentation by Chris Lundy at this past fall’s Wyoming Snow and Avalanche Workshop. For the past 12 seasons, Chris has been ingrained in the public avalanche safety arena as an avalanche specialist working with the Sawtooth Avalanche Center based in Ketchum, Idaho. In this presentation he’s focusing on Risk and diving into the topic of “Acceptible Risk.”
All the presentations at this fall’s Workshop were video recorded and the event was organized and hosted by the Teton County Search and Rescue. Thanks to Teton SAR for hosting this in-person and vitally important Workshop.
You can find Chris’s presentation at:
Wyoming Snow and Avalanche Workshop
I hope you had a chance to watch Chris’s presentation. If not, I’d highly recommend you do before your next venture into avalanche prone terrain. Keepsake takeaways from the video:
Social Proof and Heard Instinct (human heuristics) are alive and well in decision-making process while recreating in avalanche-prone terrain.
Decisions are likely weighted by “perceived risk” rather than evaluation of “actual risk”.
The possibility of triggering an avalanche FAR OUTWEIGHS the Probability of triggering an avalanche when it comes to survival in the avalanche-prone terrain.
Life-threatening consequences are REAL when traveling in avalanche-prone terrain.
Where I would like to interject my thoughts and reiterate points of Chris’s excellent presentation revolves around “Risk Tolerance”. How is risk tolerance derived? First and foremost, think about your minimal expectations in regards to acceptable risk... Acceptable risk for you and your party.
I would think the basis of acceptable risk for most of you reading this would revolve around having a safe venture into the winter backcountry, whether avalanche-prone or not. This is well-stated by Chris and I wholeheartedly agree. However, to establish risk tolerance when traveling in the avalanche arena, you must know what your, and your party’s risk appetite is. To do this, you must know what RISK is.
Now think of all the times you hear someone talk about risk or maybe you or someone else says, “I’m willing to take the risk” in regards to whatever the endeavor or activity is. Do they really know what they’re talking about OR is they’re statement strictly based on PERCEPTION? I implore you to challenge anyone who states something such as this, from here on out, as to what OBJECTIVE data they are basing their RISK ASSESSMENT on.
So, what is RISK (avalanche risk)?
Risk is a quantative summation. It can be calculated and is quantitatively referred to in the avalanche arena through a statistical-calculation called the Avalanche Hazard Index or AHI. An AHI is regularly calculated for infrastructure and elements at risk for areas located in avalanche prone terrain. When the AHI is completed, a final AHI numeric value has been established for whatever the risk is for a particular area.
So, what does the AHI calculation have to do with you traveling in avalanche prone terrain as a recreationalist or professional? It allows substance to the term, risk and allows us to incorporate Risk Management regarding our travels based on objective information and observations. Further, it is pretty simple to convey into recreational arena for educational purposes...
RISK= Probability x Exposure x Consequences.
Whereas:
Probability= Assessment of Actual Risk
Exposure= Degree based on Assessment of Actual Risk
Consequences= Potential consequences IF caught in an avalanche while traveling in chosen terrain.
I wrote about assessing Actual Risk in my previous post, if you need to review it or what it is referring to, please do.
Exposure is completely dependent on YOUR determination of actual risk. Exposure is going to incorporate both how long you are exposed to avalanche prone terrain and where you are exposed to potential avalanche activity. So, for example, your decision(s) regarding the degree of exposure would vary based on whether you were traveling in an avalanche starting zone, path or in the far reaches of a runout zone.
Consequences are in reference to what will, in worst case scenario, happen if I/ we (elements at risk) get caught in an avalanche. Consider terrain features and potential deep burial.
Be very cognizant of terrain traps as well as strainer (trees) that will cause life-threatening injury or death if encountered in an avalanche.
Once you have evaluated risk in this manner you can evaluate your “Risk Tolerance” in a given situation.
ARE THE BENEFITS (Objectives) WORTH THE RISK GIVEN YOUR ASSESSMENT?
In my avalanche education classes, when discussing risk, I like to incorporate the “Risk Triangle.” This is accompanied by the Avalanche Triangle which we’ve discussed in previous posts.
In my avalanche education classes, when discussing risk, I like to incorporate the “Risk Triangle” when explaining the variables associated with objective-based decision making regarding travel in avalnache prone terrain. Doing this is the objectively-derived action of “Risk Management”.
So, to wrap this up, I highly recommend you incorporate active RISK MANAGEMENT into your decision-making regarding travel in avalanche prone terrain. Not only will it establish an objectively based checklist for personal decision-making but it will also create an objective platform for you and your party to base decisions on.
Risk Management Process and Considerations:
Establish Actual Risk.
Know there is ALWAYS Residual Risk.
Reduce Vulnerabilities to Residual Risk to the best of your ability.
I think that’s it for now.
Be safe and Happy New Year!
Ted.
Good integration of information.
I look forward to reading some of your other posts.